Some of the complexities of foresight arise from human actors: possibilities are always contingent on the socio-material circumstances of the people who make choices that shape those possibilities. Defaulting to the probable can mean we reach for under-nuanced stereotypes while trying to predict human choices in a given scenario. Borrowing creative writing techniques to imagine backstory and extrapolate motivation may enrich foresight capability. If anticipating possibilities around human actors were laid out as an equation it might look like this:

Given [back story], if [circumstance], the character will [X]

X is the unknown part of the equation, and where the most value in modelling and foresight may be gained. There may in fact be many different variations of X, as this is an open-ended rather than a closed equation. Best-case scenarios, worst-case scenarios, and medium-case scenarios are all valid tools for analysis. 

What goes in the ‘circumstance’ part of the equation may be determined by the parameters of the research or experiment the creators are conducting. This paper will lay out the theory of characterisation, show its application to foresight, and engage the audience in a simple collaborative game around motivation, pressure, opportunity, and anticipating possibility.